What First-Round NBA Draft Positions Yield the Most Successful Players?

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TheToronto Raptors will have the 13ththe draft will occur on June 22, 2023, in Brooklyn.

While it may seem like an unlikelyOntario sportsbooks While there's optimism that Toronto will secure a top-tier talent, the NBA Draft is one of the rare professional sports events where talent distribution is so well balanced.

When looking at top picks such as Anthony Davis, selected first in 2012, along with later-round gems like Jimmy Butler, who was picked 30th in 2011, it becomes evident that any team has the chance to acquire a transformative player regardless of their draft position.

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Consider the case of Nikola Jokic, a two-time regular season MVP and 2023 NBA Finals MVP, who has achieved remarkable success after being drafted by the now-champion Denver Nuggets as the 41st pick back in 2011.

This perfectly illustrates how franchises can discover game-changing players at any stage of the draft.BetMGM Sportsbook Ontario Currently, the Nuggets are favorites to win again, while the Raptors sit at +8000 odds for the championship.

As the NBA draft approaches in just a few days,OntarioBets we aimed to identify which draft positions have historically yielded the best talent since 2010. By leveraging data from Basketball-Reference.com, we analyzed the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) for all first-round draft selections made between 2010 and 2022. We aggregated the VORP to determine the most valuable draft spots, rather than averaging it, as players have varying NBA tenure.

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Which Draft Slots Have Historically Contributed the Most Exceptional Players?

Rank, Draft Slot Team in Slot in 2023 Draft Combined VORP Top Player Since 2010
1. 1st overall pick San Antonio Spurs 172.9 Anthony Davis (NO, 2012)
2. 3rd overall pick Portland Trail Blazers 146.3 Joel Embiid (PHI, 2014)
3. 15th overall pick Atlanta Hawks 96.8 Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL, 2013)
4. 6th overall pick Orlando Magic 85.0 Damian Lillard (POR, 2012)
5. 9th overall pick Utah Jazz 77.1 Kemba Walker (CHA, 2011)
6. 30th overall pick Los Angeles Clippers 73.9 Jimmy Butler (CHI, 2011)
7. 27th overall pick Charlotte Hornets 69.5 Rudy Gobert (UTA, 2013)
8. 11th overall pick Orlando Magic 66.7 Domantas Sabonis (OKC, 2016)
9. 10th overall pick Dallas Mavericks 64.4 Paul George (IND, 2010)
10. 13th overall pick Toronto Raptors 63.9 Donovan Mitchell (UTA, 2017)

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What Raptors Can Expect With 13th Pick

Although no one is claiming Toronto will uncover the next Donovan Mitchell with the 13th pick in 2023, there is certainly a wealth of talent available for the 2019 NBA champions.

While Victor Wembanyama from France is leading the predictions for the top pick, various mock drafts suggest the Raptors may end up choosing from a pool of promising collegiate talents. For example, SBNation's Ricky O'Donnell forecasts that Toronto could select Michigan guard Kobe Bufkin, while Sam Vecenie from The Athletic anticipates that the Raptors might go for Indiana's wing player Jalen Hood-Schifino.Ontario betting apps Either of these players would be an excellent option to fill the gap left by Fred VanVleet, who is expected to enter free agency this summer, giving new head coach Darko Rajakovic a chance to revamp the backcourt.

No matter who the Raptors ultimately select with the 13th pick, a multitude of skilled players are available for the franchise to consider as they strive to regain their championship form.

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Christopher Boan
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