Only 33 players in the history of Major League Baseball have managed to surpass the prestigious milestone of 3,000 hits. The most recent to join this elite club was Miguel Cabrera from the Detroit Tigers, who achieved this feat in 2022.
It’s worth asking whetherToronto Blue Jays Star player Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in contention to be the next player in MLB history to reach this remarkable milestone in the years to come.
Achieving this would mean that Guerrero Jr. would reach a milestone that eluded his father, Vlad Guerrero Sr., who concluded his illustrious career with a total of 2,590 hits during an extensive 16-year tenure with franchises like the Montreal Expos, Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, and Baltimore Orioles.
At just 23 years old, Guerrero Jr. has already secured 547 hits and 104 home runs in 504 MLB games with the Toronto Blue Jays, maintaining an average of 163 hits for every 162-game season.
deereplanet.com Using the ZIPs Projection from FanGraphs.com alongside historical patterns of players who have achieved the 3,000-hit milestone at various ages, we've assessed Guerrero Jr.’s chances of becoming the 34th player to reach that exciting mark.
Here’s the analysis related to the promising corner infielder for the Blue Jays. Although the odds might not be overwhelmingly favorable,Ontario sportsbooks you can't overlook his youth and undeniable talent, which give him a legitimate opportunity.
Odds of Joining The 3,000 Hit Club
What Vlad Jr. Needs to Do to Reach 3,000 Hits
As it stands, Guerrero is 2,453 hits away from the 3,000-hit milestone, meaning he would have to maintain an incredible average of 200 hits per season for the next 12.265 seasons to achieve this goal.
So far, the young Guerrero has never tallied more than 188 hits in a single season, a benchmark he reached back in 2021.
Excluding the shortened 2020 season impacted by COVID, during which he recorded 58 hits in just 60 games, the hometown hero has averaged around 163 hits per campaign.
Based on that average of 163 hits each year, Guerrero would need to play a minimum of 18.4 seasons to achieve his personal goal of 3,000 hits — while this isn’t an impossible dream, considering his youth (only 23) and ability to accumulate hits, sustaining a high level of performance for 19 full seasons isn't guaranteed.
For reference, Guerrero Sr. had recorded fewer hits (305) by the conclusion of his 23rd year compared to his son, although he did have one season with 200 hits.
Moreover, Vlad Sr. earned his only MVP award in his 29th year, suggesting that Blue Jays supporters might have plenty of time to witness 'Vladito' before he reaches the peak thriving period that his father enjoyed, and he is already a strong MVP contender atBetMGM Sportsbook Ontario next season.
Nevertheless, taking into account the potential for injuries and other unforeseen issues in the coming years, it remains uncertain whether Guerrero will ultimately attain this notable achievement.
Consequently, deereplanet.com currently places Guerrero’s odds at +615 concerning reaching this milestone during his storied MLB career, placing him second in our rankings, behind Juan Soto from San Diego (+425) and leaving behind established players like Bryce Harper (+4900) and Rafael Devers (+9900).
In the meantime, fans of the Blue Jays can take comfort in the strong possibility of seeing favorable odds for winning the AL East next season onOntario sports betting apps .
