What Are the Chances for NHL Teams That Start Down 1-0 to Come Back and Win Their Playoff Series?

By Jim Tomlin

@jdtomlin68

May 28, 2025 04:07pm

The highly anticipated first-round matchup for NHL dominance in Canada's most populous province has generated significant excitement.Ontario sports betting The Toronto Maple Leafs secured a decisive 6-2 victory over the Ottawa Senators on Sunday, marking the beginning of their best-of-seven series rivalry.

What are the chances for Ottawa to bounce back and win the series?

deereplanet.com used data from ChampsorChumps.US to analyze trends and statistics related to NHL playoff series following Game 1, covering every best-of-seven series since the 1939 season.

How NHL Teams Perform After Falling Behind 1-0 in a Series

TheOttawa Senators playoff odds The outcome of Game 2, set for Tuesday night at 7:30 p.m. Eastern in Toronto, will significantly influence the series.

Historically, teams that lose Game 1 in a best-of-seven series come back to win the series less than 30% of the time, specifically achieving a success rate of 29.8%.

Notably, this is Ottawa's first playoff appearance since 2017, which means the most current data available on the Senators is from that year. However, it's worth mentioning that they have had a successful comeback in the past. Eight years ago, during the first playoff round, they lost Game 1 to the Boston Bruins but won Game 2 and ultimately triumphed in the series over six games. OurOttawa Senators betting guide In the subsequent weeks that spring, the Pittsburgh Penguins managed to defeat the Senators in the Eastern Conference final in six games, even after Ottawa won the first match.

Throughout the history of their playoff appearances, the Senators have advanced beyond the first round seven times out of sixteen. For example, in 2003, after dropping Game 1 to the New York Islanders, Ottawa rebounded by winning Game 2 3-0 and then eliminated the Islanders in five games.

This playoff series marks the first 'Battle of Ontario' since 2004, and unfortunately for fans of the Senators, Toronto has historically dominated in postseason contests, winning four series against Ottawa.

The odds currently favor the Leafs as well. However, past encounters occurred between 2000 and 2004, meaning that none of the current players were part of those matchups.Ontario sportsbook apps Teams that win Game 2 after losing the first game generally have a balanced chance to take the series, achieving this success rate 50.7% of the time. Conversely, if the team leading the series wins Game 2, the chances of the trailing team making a comeback fall sharply, as historically only 11.8% of teams have overcome a 2-0 deficit in a seven-game series since 1939.

What Senators Must Do In Game 2

According to the research from the Champs or Chumps website In Game 1, the Senators had their fair share of chances, outshooting the Leafs 33 to 24 and recording 56 hits compared to Toronto’s 30. However, the Leafs excelled in faceoffs, winning 56.1% overall and 59% at even strength, leading to numerous scoring opportunities despite their lower shot count.hockey betting in Ontario Ottawa demonstrated a physical style of play against Toronto, perhaps overly aggressive, as the Leafs capitalized on six power-play chances, scoring on two. To enhance their chances of success, the Senators need to focus on minimizing penalties and securing more faceoffs.

Jim Tomlin is a seasoned editor and writer with a focus on sports and gambling, boasting over 30 years in journalism. His articles have appeared in outlets like the Tampa Bay Times, FanRag, Saturday Down South, and Saturday Tradition.

Cited by leading media outlets, such as:Stanley Cup odds .

USA Today photo by John E. Sokolowski